
This story reports on a study estimating that Lake Mead, our primary water source, has a 50 percent chance of running dry by 2021. (Remember when 2020, or 2010, seemed like sooooo far away? 2021 is 13 years from now. Yikes.) As the reporter notes, that 50 percent chance is "better than your odds of winning at any casino."
Not everyone agrees with this, of course, and they make the point that Lake Mead won't be allowed to run dry because it's too important. There's a complicated series of water agreements requiring other Colorado River users to take less water as the lake level drops.
Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman touched off a little bit of a firestorm by talking about that aspect of the story, singling out California farms: "The Imperial Valley farmers will have their fields go fallow before our spigots run dry." The response from California people was along the lines of, "Oh yeah? Try it, tough guy." (See here and here.)
Like Mark Twain said, in the West, whiskey's for drinkin' and water's for fightin'.
There probably will be less of it to fight over, though. This National Geographic story cites studies showing that future flows in the Colorado River will drop to levels well below what's taken out now for the 30 million or so people who depend on that water. This goes well beyond Vegas — lump us with Denver, Phoenix, and pretty much all of Southern California.
What's most interesting to me is the fact that, according to the researchers in that story, Vegas and SoCal developed during exceptionally wet years for the Colorado River. All of our data and agreements about the river are based on a time period that, historically, was a freak anomaly.
This is potentially dire news that portends an ugly dismantling of major population and economic centers. But I also think it's funny. It's not as though our country has been especially responsible in the West, either to the environment or to the native people. Even though I benefit from all that irresponsibility today, I can still have fun thinking that our Manifest Destiny is, ultimately, to have the rug yanked out from under us.